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Elon Musk had an consequential 2024 , what with his intemperate push into right - wing politics and leveraging his X societal metier political platform and considerable influence to helpDonald Trumpwin the presidential election .
assign government aside for a moment , it ’s worth center on another Musk pastime : making promises for Tesla .
The Tesla CEO ’s promises — and repeated miss deadlines — have become a elemental yarn in the Tesla plot line . And they ’ve always had an eye - popping quality that bewitch the imagination of investors and helped drive up the value of Tesla pedigree , giving the troupe avaluation of $ 1.3 trillion . There was his claim in 2015 that Tesla vehicle would beself - driving in two long time , thatcross - commonwealth driverless road - tripswould be enable by the end of 2017 , and that Tesla owners would be able-bodied to earn money via a monumental driverless ride - hailing connection in 2020 .
And while Tesla has cemented its lieu in story books thanks to build and selling 1000000 of electric vehicles , none of the above promise ( nor many others ) have come to drop dead .
But that has n’t stopped Musk from making more promises in 2024 . Here ’s an accountancy of those promises and when he expects them to become reality .
you may just say things
The $25,000 EV
In 2024 alone , Muskpledged to unveila $ 25,000 EV , thenscrapped itin April to prioritise a robotaxi prototype — a decision that led tomass layoffsas Tesla prosecute its “ next phase of outgrowth . ”
Musk hasflip - floppedon whether the affordable EV would ever come to market . But during Tesla ’s third - quarter earnings call , Musk said the idea of build a $ 25,000 car with a steering wheel and pedals is “ pointless ” and “ giddy . ” He say the only gondola he ’d sell at that cost full point would be the Cybercab .
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During the call , an analyst postulate if Tesla would make a lower - toll EV that ’s not the Cybercab , and Musk respond that all of the company ’s cars moving forward would be autonomous . He also articulate that of the 7 million vehicle Tesla has built to date , the “ vast majority ” are “ capable of autonomy , ” and that Tesla is “ currently making on the order of 35,000 self-reliant vehicle a workweek . ” Musk is clearly using a at large definition of self-reliance here , because Tesla still does not give rise vehicle that are safe to use without a man behind the wheel .
( Flashback : Musk originally promised in 2016 , in a since - delete post on Tesla ’s website , that “ All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self - Driving ironware , ” and that only a computer software update would be needed to turn even old Teslas into self - driving cars . That did n’t happen , and Tesla has had to advance car with old hardware . )
It ’s also worth noting that during that earnings call , Musk said that he ask fomite growth to get through 20 % to 30 % in 2025 due to “ lower cost vehicles ” and the “ advent of liberty . ”
Start production on the Cybercab by 2025 or 2026
Tesla unveil 20 Cybercab prototypesat a brassy Hollywood event in October , and Musk take the opportunity to share some architectural plan for the fomite , as well as Tesla ’s so - called Full Self - Driving ( FSD ) software program . FSD is Tesla ’s advanced driver assistance system that can execute many machine-driven driving tasks , but still command a human to remain attentive behind the wheel and take over if needed .
Musk told customers they would be able to one day buy a robotaxi — a two - door , two - seat vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals — for less than $ 30,000 . He also said that the mean operating cost of the Cybercab will reduce over time to only $ 0.20 per mile . And he tell Tesla would start product on the purpose - build up AVs in 2025 or 2026 .
( Flashback : Musk say in 2022 that Tesla wouldmass - garden truck robotaxis by 2024 . Before that , in 2019 , he said that Tesla would havea million robotaxis on roads by 2020 . Musk has promised that Tesla would puzzle out full self - driving “ next twelvemonth ” since at least 2016 . )
A few calendar week later , during Tesla ’s third - quarter profit call , Musk saidTesla would reach “ mass production in ’ 26 , ” and that the company was finally “ aiming for at least 2 million units a class of Cybercab . ”
Current federal regulations that postulate vehicle to be build with sure safety standards , like manual human controls , could beroadblocksfor Tesla to heap produce its Cybercabs . The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration recentlyproposed new rulesthat would firm - track exemptions for such vehicles , but they would require companies to divvy up more datum with the office , like smash reporting . Today , auto maker are require to report crash when ADAS or autonomous drive tech is engaged .
Musk has railed against the principle before , and President - elect Donald Trump ’s transition team is reportedlyexploring scrapping it .
Robovan in development
During Tesla ’s robotaxi reveal , the company also showed investor a Robovan paradigm . At the fourth dimension Musk did n’t share any concrete plans for the vehicle , but in November heposted on Xthat the Robovan is in development , along with “ some other things . ”
( Flashback : In 2016 , Musk said Tesla wouldstart build a minibususing the Model X anatomy in two to three yr . )
“Unsupervised FSD” and autonomous ride-hail in 2025
At the event , Musk also call that Model 3 and Model Y owner would be capable to use an “ unsupervised ” interpretation of FSD in California and Texas in 2025 .
It was n’t , and still is n’t , unclouded what Musk mean by “ unsupervised ” FSD . Today , Tesla ’s FSD is still not fully autonomous , and to dispel any confusion , Tesla this twelvemonth start referring to the software as “ supervised FSD . ” Removing the supervising could stand for that Tesla plans to remove the number one wood , or it could mean that Tesla plans to bid a Level 3 autonomous system that allows drivers to go hands - off , eyes - off for a constituent of their ride .
During Tesla ’s third - one-fourth earnings call , Musk took the promise of unsupervised FSD a step further . He say he hop-skip to launch a service that will lease peoplehail ego - driving Teslasin California and Texas in 2025 . He also claimed Tesla had get examine the service in the Bay Area with employee .
( Context : There are several tiers of permits required to examine and deploy autonomous vehicles in California . Tesla has held a permit to test Ab with a safety driver in the front seat since 2015 , but the Department of Motor Vehicles told TechCrunch in October thatTesla last describe using that permit in 2019 . )
It ’s not clear if Tesla plans to launch this ride - hail servicing with its robotaxis or with live Tesla Model 3 and Model Y owners . Tesla ’s first - twenty-five percent earnings demonstration include a mock - up of a next Tesla ride - hail app , and the company has for years teased the idea of a drive - hail meshing using Teslas that had been updated to drive fully autonomously . The idea is similar to Uber , only Tesla owner would add their properly equipped self - driving vehicles to the automaker ’s drive - hailing app to make extra cash when the car are not in manipulation . Tesla would take 25 % to 30 % of the revenue .
in the end , during Tesla ’s first - stern earnings call , Musk read Tesla was in talk with a “ major automaker ” to licence FSD , but so far has not foretell any such mint .
“Over a thousand Optimus robots working at Tesla” in 2025
Musk has made some out - there promises about Optimus , Tesla ’s humanoid robot . During Tesla ’s annual shareholder merging , Musk foretell that Tesla would move into “ circumscribed production ” of the Optimus next class , with “ over 1,000 , or a few thousand , Optimus robots act upon at Tesla ” in 2025 . He also said he expects Optimus to beon cut-rate sale by 2026 . In apost on X , the billionaire executive added that he expects to have more Optimus bots usable for use by other caller in 2026 .
He did not qualify if the bots would be working fully autonomously , or if they would beremotely controlled by humans , as they were during Tesla ’s robotaxi let on upshot in October .
( Context : While humanoid golem are improving to the point of being able-bodied to autonomously complete specific tasks , many experts say generalized robotics is still years away due to a lack of preparation data . )
away from manufacturing hope , Musk also predicted that Optimus could one daytime lift Tesla ’s market cap to $ 25 trillion . That ’s roughlyseven timesthe current market capital of Apple and Nvidia . At the end of December , Tesla ’s marketplace cap was around $ 1.42 trillion , which is almost a 160 % increment from the $ 550 billion market pileus before Trump won the presidential election .
Have we missed anything ? palpate free to reach out to rebecca.bellan@techcrunch.com .
