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It ’s been two decades since I developed the first driverless bike , Ghostrider , as part of the DARPA Grand Challenge , an event that is wide view as the dawn of autonomous fomite . That was in 2004 , and in 2008 , we used a modified Prius to render a pizza pie in San Francisco without a human driver — the first driverless railcar to pilot public streets .
With such rapid advances , at the time , the consensus was that there would be an autonomous railcar in every driveway within the next 10 years . Yet , somehow , we ’re still years out from make that dream .
Much progression has been made since then , and 2024 — the 20th anniversary of Ghostrider — will be another seminal year for self-reliant vehicles , peculiarly for off - route industries .
Lessons learned on-road
Eight years ago , my company , Otto , deployed an 18 - wheeler that fill out the first sovereign commercial delivery , transporting50,000 fanny of Budweiserfrom Fort Collins , Colorado , to Colorado Springs , a distance of 135 mi . After that successful rescue , we expected to descale quickly . But we soon key that driving on the main road stick in a fresh lot of consequences much grievous than a robotaxi jamming an intersection in San Francisco . ( remark to San Franciscans : Please stopcone - ing the robots . )
The possibilities off-road
One environs in which the pipe dream of independent vehicles has turned into realism is off - road , where conditions are often hazardous , and jobs tend to lessen into what academic call “ the three Ds ” : serious , boring , and difficult . Robots can outgo homo - driven vehicle in efficiency , speed , and safety ; after all , an off - site human is a man who ca n’t be injure . For commercial operations , there is another compelling ground for deploying sovereign vehicle in these conditions : increased profit .
truck such asPronto‘s can be found in environments lay out from humid jungles to the tundra of the Arctic . automaton do n’t complain about the high temperature , humidity , or cold ; are never tardy ; and are more efficient overall . For eld , company like ASI , Caterpillar , and Komatsu have deployed sovereign answer in such industry as agriculture , construction , and minelaying and have found that robots ’ more effective operations often reduce the environmental impingement of these sectors as well .
The road ahead for Tesla
No conversation about self - drive can ignore Tesla . Like Tesla , Pronto ’s camera - based technology utilise camera and AI to detect and interpret a robot car ’s surroundings , just as a human driver does . I firmly believe this is the correct approaching and that in 2024 , Tesla will complete the cross - country independent road trip it has design since 2016 , making it the second company to push back coast to coast without human intervention .
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I also trust that Tesla ’s technology will keep to encourage . One specific annoyance pointedness I bear Tesla to announce is what I ’ll call “ FSD Supercharge ” : Drop your car in a waiting line where it waits and then rolls up to the next available courser , where someone plugs and disconnect your vehicle , and it returns to you to the full charge . Pronto hand truck are capable of this , and if Tesla want to do this , I ’m glad to tender some Pronto engineering metre to get it done .
Safety remains a concern
rubber stay the preponderating system of measurement for self-directed fomite deployment , yet there has to be diligence consensus on how to adequately measure a automatic or human driver ’s safety .
company gauge safety using varying methodologies , like miles per critical interference ( MPCI ) . This affect a human guard driver rally along to take over when the AV encounter unclear situations . The company then endeavor to simulate whether a severe incident would have occurred without human intervention .
These simulations , however , still need to be better for real - earth driving . As long as models can not perfectly forecast the demeanor of a ego - driving automobile , on - road examination remains necessary . Yet this testing cede subjective safety assessments across companies based on internal metrics .
To increase transparency , the California DMV logsautonomous vehicle collisions . However , not all incidents are disclosed , and the report are often incomplete . Companies make item-by-item calls on what constitutes a concerning “ intervention . ” As a answer , policymakers ask more definitive safety machine data to inform regulations and headway for broad deployment . Progress go on through on-going testing focalise on work up competency . But look backup drivers to remain guardians of the technology until autonomous systems can robustly attest safety .
To recap , 2024 is the Year of the Robot . This engineering science is no longer in demonstration mode but being put to work , adding value and lead us into the hereafter .
